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Oklahoma Department of Health's coronavirus modeling estimates April 21 peak, over 9,000 cases by May 1

The Oklahoma State Department of Health on Friday released its modeling to forecast how the coronavirus pandemic could play out in the state through May 1, estimating the date of peak would be April 21.

Officials said as of Friday, more than 22,000 specimens were tested for COVID-19 in Oklahoma.

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Authored by Dr. Aaron M. Wendelboe, Dr. Justin Dvorak and Dr. Michael P. Anderson, Latest Oklahoma News the COVID-19 modeling identifies the following key metrics for Oklahoma, according to the health department:

Date of peak: April 21

Number of New Cases at the Peak: 436
Number of Deaths at the Peak: 22
Number of New Hospitalizations at the Peak: 131
Number of People in the Hospital for COVID at the Peak: 915
Number of People in the ICU for COVID at the Peak: 458
Cumulative Number of COVID-19-positive cases by May 1: 9,300

Cumulative Number of Deaths by May 1: 469 deaths

“Over the past week, Oklahoma has significantly increased COVID-19 testing data due to expanded capacity at labs and more than 80 mobile testing locations across the state,” said Dr. Aaron Wendelboe, interim state epidemiologist. “This new data gave our team of epidemiologists stronger insight to forecast a COVID-19 model for the State of Oklahoma. At this point, we are estimating that Oklahoma will hit peak demand on hospitals, ICU beds, and other critical medical supplies around April 21.”

The IHME, referenced by the White House Coronavirus Task Force, Press Release Distribution Service estimates the peak resource use for Oklahoma would be April 27.

A copy of Oklahoma State Department of Health’s COVID-19 forecasting can be read by clicking here, which includes charts and an explanation of modeling methodology.

As of Friday, April 10, nearly 1,800 Oklahomans have tested positive for the coronavirus, and 88 people have died.

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